受环境变化的影响,时间序列的非一致性已对干旱频率分析造成越来越多的影响。针对目前干旱频率分析对时间序列“非一致性”考虑不足的问题,提出通过对时间序列的变异诊断、分时段干旱特征变量提取、Copula联合分布函数构建等过程,对水文变异条件下的非一致性干旱频率进行分析。以鄱阳湖为研究对象,采用非一致性干旱频率计算方法对湖口站1955—2015年的水位序列进行分析。结果显示:湖口站水位序列于2003年出现了跳跃向下的变异,水位变异后的干旱历时和干旱烈度比变异前均有所增大,同频率干旱事件的重现期存在较大幅度的缩减。鄱阳湖区有关水资源管理部门应尽快对干旱应对措施作出相应的调整,以适应水文变异带来的挑战。
Abstract
Affected by the changing environment, the inconsistency of time series has posed increasing impact on drought frequency analysis, which, however, lacks consideration of such inconsistency. We propose to analyze drought frequency in consideration of the inconsistency of time series under the circumstance of hydrological alteration by diagnosing the variations of time series, extracting drought variables, and constructing Copula joint distribution function. With the Poyang Lake as the study object, we examine the monthly water level series from 1955 to 2015 of Hukou station by the proposed method. Results manifest that downward alteration of water level series occurred in 2003, after which the drought duration and drought intensity escalated, and the return period of drought events with the same frequency plunged. Water resources management departments in the Poyang Lake area should adjust timely the countermeasures to drought events to respond to the challenges posed by hydrological alteration.
关键词
水文变异 /
非一致性 /
Copula函数 /
干旱频率 /
鄱阳湖
Key words
hydrological alteration /
inconsistency /
Copula function /
drought frequency /
Poyang Lake
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基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51809009,41890822);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2019433/SZ)
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