关键词: 山洪灾害, 预报预警, SCS模型, 适用性, 洪峰流量

Abstract: As an important non-engineering measure of flood disaster control, forecasting and early warning is the key link of disaster prevention, reduction and relief. In this paper we select five typical small watersheds to examine the applicability of SCS model. The five watersheds are: Guanshan River Basin of Hubei Province, Baisha River Basin of Sichuan Province, Wangmo River Basin in Wangmo County of Guizhou Province, Chabagou basin in Zizhou County of Shaanxi Province, and Magui River Basin in Gaozhou City of Guangdong Province, representing the water resources protection area in Qinling-Daba mountains,the southwest earthquake action area,the karst area, the loess plateau area, and the southeast coastal typhoon-affected area, respectively. Results reveal that the forecast schemes for Guanshan River, Baisha River, Wangmo River and Magui River are above the second class which can be used in practical flood forecasting, and the scheme of Chabagou basin achieves the third class which can be taken as reference for practical flood forecasting. The prediction accuracy of SCS model in the five typical demonstration areas is generally around 80%, higher than the average level (40%) of flash flood peak forecast in China. Generally speaking, SCS model has good applicability in flash flood simulation for various types of typical basins. It can be used for flash flood forecasting and early warning. SCS model has simple structure with small number of parameters, especially suitable for ungauged basins and easy to be popularized and applied.

Key words: flash flood, forecasting and early warning, SCS model, applicability, flood peak discharge