长江科学院院报 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 12-17,23.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20200110

• 水资源与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961—2017年长江中下游冬季降雪气候特征及其变化分析

董恒鑫1, 张子潞1, 张芯瑜1, 曾燕2,3, 朱晓晨1, 邱新法1, 祝嗣嫄1, 米鑫1   

  1. 1.南京信息工程大学 应用气象学院,南京 210044;
    2.中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室,南京 210009;
    3.江苏省气象科学研究所,南京 210009
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-15 修回日期:2020-04-27 发布日期:2021-02-23
  • 通讯作者: 朱晓晨(1984-),男,江苏盐城人,讲师,博士,研究方向为GIS在气象中应用研究。E-mail:nuistzxc@163.com
  • 作者简介:董恒鑫(1998-),男,满族,辽宁丹东人,研究方向为气象灾害影响评估。E-mail:hengxin_dong@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41805049);南京信息工程大学人才启动项目(2018r009)

Climate Characteristics and Changes of Winter Snowfall in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2017

DONG Heng-xin1, ZHANG Zi-lu1, ZHANG Xin-yu1, ZENG Yan2, 3, ZHU Xiao-chen1, QIU Xin-fa1, ZHU Si-yuan1, MI Xin1   

  1. 1. School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing 210009, China;
    3. Jiangsu Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanjing 210009, China
  • Received:2020-02-15 Revised:2020-04-27 Published:2021-02-23

摘要: 气候变化引起局地气象灾害频发,降雪事件导致交通、电力、农业等严重受损。以1961—2017年长江中下游地区118个常规气象站数据为基础,采用气候倾向、累积距平、非参数M-K趋势分析以及旋转经验正交函数(REOF)分解4种方法,对长江中下游地区冬季降雪变化特征进行分析。结果表明长江中下游大多数区域降雪量随年际变化呈现递减趋势;冬季降雪日数在1981年出现突变,其降雪日数由增加转变为减少;REOF结果表明长江中下游地区降雪与降雪变化主要集中于该地区的西北部。降雪特征及其趋势分析可为长江中下游地区的雪灾防范工作提供技术支撑。

关键词: 气候倾向, 趋势分析, 突变检验, REOF分解, 长江中下游地区

Abstract: Climate change results in frequent local meteorological disasters, and in particular, snowfall events cause severe damage to transportation, electricity, and agriculture. On the basis of data of 118 conventional meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2017, the characteristics of winter snowfall in the study area are examined by using climate tendency, cumulative anomaly, non-parametric M-K trend analysis and REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function). Results unveil that snowfall in most areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River indicates a decreasing trend with age. The number of snowfall days in winter changed abruptly in 1981 from increasing trend to declining trend. The results of REOF suggest that the snowfall and snowfall change are mainly concentrated in the northwest area of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. The research findings offer technical support for preventing snowfall disasters.

Key words: climate tendency;trend analysis;mutation test;REOF decomposition;middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

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