为科学地评价流域水资源承载能力,提出耗水视角下水资源支撑的最大经济规模和最大人口规模指标,构建了考虑流域节水、调水的水资源承载能力评判模型。以汉江流域为例,分别对流域不同水平年、不同调水规模情景下的水资源承载能力进行综合评判。结果表明:2020年、2030年规划水平年,流域在实施南水北调中线工程一期调出水量95亿m³、引汉济渭工程调出水量10亿m³ 后,流域水资源不仅仍能维持本流域发展,还能向外流域调出的最大水量分别为19.7亿m³和15.6亿m³。然而,2030年加大调水规模,实施南水北调中线工程调出水量130亿m³后,流域水资源不足以维持流域内社会经济的可持续发展,需要考虑外流域补水。在此基础上,基于协同学理论,构建考虑耗水因素的水资源承载系统序参量,建立协调度评估模型,以汉江流域襄阳地区为例从宏观层面评估水资源支撑流域社会经济发展态势。结果表明,襄阳地区水资源承载能力协调态势在2011—2017年间由较不协调逐步发展为基本协调,在考虑节水情况下水资源承载能力整体趋于良性发展。研究成果可为汉江流域远景跨流域引调水规模研究和确定长江补水规模提供科学依据和技术支撑。

An assessment model for water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) in consideration of water conservation and water transfer was constructed with the maximum economic scale and maximum population sustained by corresponding WRCC as assessment indicators. The WRCC in Hanjiang River basin in different target years at varying water transfer scales was assessed as a case study. Under the scenarios of diverting 9.5 billion cubic meters of water for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project and in the mean time 1.0 billion cubic meters for the Hanjiang River-to-Weihe River Water Diversion Project, the water resources in Hanjiang River Basin could still support the potential for socio-economic development of the basin, and could even afford water transfer to other basins with a maximum amount reaching 1.97 billion cubic meters and 1.56 billion cubic meters in target year 2020 and 2030, respectively. Nevertheless, in the scenario of diverting 13 billion cubic meters of water for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in 2030, the water resources in Hanjiang River Basin could no longer support the sustainable development of the basin, and external water compensation from outside the basin should be needed. In addition, a coordination degree model was constructed to evaluate the capacity of water resources sustaining socio-economic development on macroscopic level based on the theory of synergy with sequential parameters containing water consumption factor. From 2011 to 2017, the water resources carrying system in Xiangyang gradually developed from relatively uncoordinated to basically coordinated. The overall WRCC tended to develop soundly in consideration of water conservation. The research findings offer scientific basis as well as technical support for researching the trans-basin water diversion scale in the Hanjiang River basin in the long run and for determining the water compensation scale from the Yangtze River.