长江科学院院报 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12): 40-46.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20191119

• 水资源与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Copula函数的气候变化下洪水峰量联合分析

曾珂1,2,3, 谭学志2,3,4, 梁廖逢1,2,3, 刘茹1,2,3, 刘祖发2,3,4, 高艺桔2,3,4   

  1. 1.中山大学 地理科学与规划学院,广州 510275;
    2.中山大学 水资源与环境研究中心,广州 510275;
    3.中山大学 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广州 510275;
    4.中山大学 土木工程学院,广东 珠海 519080
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-16 修回日期:2019-11-06 出版日期:2020-12-01 发布日期:2020-12-28
  • 通讯作者: 刘祖发(1961-),男,河南潢川人,副教授,博士,主要从事水文与水资源学研究。E-mail:eeslzf@sysu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:曾珂(1997-),女,江西萍乡人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文与水资源学研究。E-mail:zengk6@mail2.sysu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金委员会青年科学基金项目(51809295)

Copula-based Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Flood Peak Volume under Climate Changes

ZENG Ke1,2,3, TAN Xue-zhi2,3,4, LIANG Liao-feng1,2,3, LIU Ru1,2,3, LIU Zu-fa2,3,4, GAO Yi-jie2,3,4   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Center for Water Resource and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    4. School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519080, China
  • Received:2019-09-16 Revised:2019-11-06 Published:2020-12-01 Online:2020-12-28

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摘要： 为研究气候变化对北江流域洪水特征发生频率的影响,采用分位数映射(Quantile Mapping,QM)后处理方法校正BCC_CSM1.1气候模式2种情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下的气候数据,用于SWAT模型模拟历史(1965—2010年)和未来(2030—2064年、2065—2099年)的北江流域径流量,并采用单变量分析法和基于Copula函数的双变量联合分析法分别对各时期年最大洪峰流量Q和年最大7 d洪量W进行对比分析。结果表明:除RCP8.5下2065—2099年的W外,重现期(T≥50 a)越大,气候变化对Q和W的影响越大; RCP4.5下气候变化对Q和W的影响较RCP8.5下大;2种未来情景下,气候变化对Q的影响均大于对W的影响;对于同一重现期,双变量联合分析法推求的洪水特征设计值较单变量分析法的偏安全。该研究结合了气候变化和双变量联合分析,对变化环境下的洪水风险评价与管理具有一定的参考价值。

关键词: 洪水峰量, 气候变化, 双变量分析法, Copula函数, 频率分析, 北江流域

Abstract: To study the impacts of climate change on the occurrence frequency of flood characteristics in Bejiang River basin, the outputs of two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on BCC_CSM1.1 are statistically downscaled by Quantile mapping (QM) and used as input of SWAT model to simulate streamflow during historical (1965-2010) and future (2030-2064, 2065-2099) periods. Univariate analysis and bivariate joint analysis based on Copula are used to analyze annual maximum flood peak flow (Q) and annual maximum seven-day flood volume (W). The results show that climate change has heavier impacts on Q and W with larger return period exceeding 50 years, except from the W of 2065—2099 under RCP8.5. Climate change under RCP4.5 has heavier impacts on Q and W than that under RCP8.5. The impact of climate change on the Q is greater than that on the W under two scenarios. The design floods of the bivariate joint analysis is safer than that of the univariate analysis. The study incorporates climate change and bivariate joint analysis, and of referential value for flood risk assessment and management under varying circumstances.

Key words: flood peak volume, climate change, bivariate analysis, Copula function, frequency analysis, Beijiang River basin

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