为了分析来水不确定性导致的水电站发电风险,构建了日径流随机模拟模型,模拟生成了长系列径流序列,建立常规调度和优化调度模型,并将模拟径流序列作为输入驱动调度模型。以年均发电量、发电稳定性、弃水量、发电保证率、蓄满率为主要风险指标,建立了发电风险分析的指标体系。在此基础上,以三峡水库作为调度模型的研究实例,比较了常规调度和优化调度的风险水平。结果表明:优化调度较常规调度年发电量增加约5%;信息熵结果显示优化调度模型不确定性较小,更加稳定;优化调度弃水量约为常规调度的50%,且优化调度降低了出力破坏风险。文中给出的优化调度模型所得调度过程在经济效益及风险控制方面都有较优的表现。

Stochastic modeling of daily runoff is constructed to analyze the power generation risks of hydropower stations caused by the uncertainty of inflow. Simulated long-term runoff series are used as input data of the model to compare regular scheduling and optimized scheduling. A risk analysis system consisting annual average power generation, power generation stability, water abandonment, power generation guarantee rate, and full storage rate as major risk indexes is established. The Three Gorges Reservoir is taken as an example to compare the risk level of power generation between regular scheduling and optimized scheduling. Results show that the annual mean power generation in optimized scheduling increases by about 5% compared with that of regular scheduling. The calculated entropy values imply that the uncertainty of optimized scheduling model is much smaller and more stable. The abandoned water amount in optimized scheduling is about 50% of that in regular scheduling. In addition, the risk is reduced in optimized scheduling model. The scheduling process derived from the optimized scheduling model in this paper has better performance in economic benefits and risk control.