河岸稳定性影响因素众多,各因素间的相互作用机理复杂,现阶段的已有研究深度尚难以满足定量计算河岸稳定性的需求。采用定性分析与定量计算相结合的方法,初步构建了河岸稳定性评估指标体系。在此过程中,分析河岸稳定性评估指标选取的基本原则,将河岸稳定性评估指标体系分为目标层、属性层和指标层3个层次,依据河岸稳定性现状、影响因素和变化过程对岸线现状、岸坡地质条件、护岸完备性条件、河势变化情况、近岸河床冲刷程度和近岸河床坡度情况等指标进行了分析,初步探讨了河岸稳定性评估结果可靠性问题。讨论分析结果表明:河岸稳定性评估体系是基于对多个动态可变因子的定量化尝试;评估的有效性依赖于近岸河床变化监测数据的可靠性和代表性;下一步研究可针对具体河段开展指标量化或优化计算方法探讨,以及河道岸坡稳定性评估体系的验证。

Due to numerous influencing factors and complexity of the interaction mechanism among these factors, current study on riverbank stability is still difficult to meet the demand of quantitative calculation. In this paper, a riverbank stability evaluation index system is constructed by combining qualitative analysis with quantitative calculation. In this process, the basic principle of selecting the evaluation indexes of riverbank stability is analyzed. The evaluation index system of river bank stability is divided into three layers: target layer, attribute layer and index layer. According to the current situation, influencing factors and change process of riverbank stability, the current situation of bank line, the geological condition of bank slope, the condition of bank protection completeness, the change of river regime, and the scour degree and slope of river bed near bank are analyzed. The reliability of evaluation results in the process of river bank stability assessment is also discussed.The discussion and analysis demonstrate: the riverbank stability evaluation index system is based on the quantitative attempt of multiple dynamic variable factors; the validity of the system depends on the reliability and representativeness of the monitoring data of the nearshore riverbed; further study can be performed in terms of quantitative or optimal calculation methods for specific river sections as well as the verification of the riverbank stability evaluation index system.