为了根据来水情形确定年度用水总量控制指标并对水量分配过程进行合理控制,提出了面向总量控制的水量动态优化分配方法。以抚河流域为研究对象,构建了以流域余留期缺水量最小为目标,综合考虑用水区水量需求、控制断面流量要求等约束的水量优化模型,通过“预报-决策-执行-更新”的动态运行方式实现了用水总量控制指标的实时调整。结果表明:在年内水资源由丰转枯时,各用水区的缺水率较传统调度下降了3.8%~25.3%;当年内水资源由枯转丰时,各分区余留期用水量始终控制在余留期总量控制指标之内。本方法得到的年度用水总量控制指标能有效地适应年内不同来水情况,并能根据不同来水条件对供水行为进行激励或约束。

A dynamic optimal allocation method for total amount control of water resources is proposed in this paper to determine the annual gross control index of water consumption and to rationally control water allocation according to inflow. With Fuhe River drainage basin as a case study, a model for optimal allocation of water resources is established with minimizing the water shortage in remaining stage (operation stage) as the objective, and water demand in water use area as well as flux requirements for control sections as constraints. The control index is real-time adjusted through the dynamic operation mode “forecast-decision-implementation-renewal”. Result shows that the water shortage rate in the water use area declines by 3.8%-25.3% when inflow scenario (IS) changes from wet to dry, while the water use in remaining stage is always controlled within the total amount control index when dry IS turns to wet. The annual total amount control index of water consumption calculated by the present method effectively adapts to different water conditions in the year, and meanwhile instigates or limits the supply of water according to different water supply conditions.