关键词: 滑坡预报, GM(1, 1)模型, 速率参量, 摩擦学, 灰色系统理论, Verhulst预报模型

Abstract: With tribology and grey system as theoretic basis, a GM(1,1) model of landslide time prediction based on velocity parameter is established, and the landslide time forecast formula is deduced. Huangci landslide and Xintan landslide are taken as case study. The prediction result is compared with those obtained by traditional GM(1,1) model based on displacement parameter and Verhulst model. Results conclude that compared with the GM(1,1) model based on displacement parameter, the GM(1,1) model based on velocity parameter could predict landslide in advance, with the time closer to the factual landslide occurrence time; compared with traditional Verhulst model based on displacement parameter, the GM(1,1) model based on velocity parameters could reflect the change trend of landslide more accurately in addition to prediction in advance. Therefore, the GM(1,1) model based on velocity parameter is recommended for landslide time prediction.

Key words: landslide time prediction, GM (1,1) model, velocity, tribology, grey systematic theory, Verhulst model