藏东南地区气候环境复杂,地质条件恶劣,广为分布的堆积体斜坡易在多种极端条件诱发下失稳,具有较大的潜在风险。为研究复杂环境条件对滑坡的诱发作用,提出一种能够考虑多种诱发因素耦合作用的滑坡危险性评价方法。以地震和降雨为例,分别考虑了诱发因素自身的随机性与诱发作用的不确定性,通过分析不同危险性量级诱发事件的发生概率与回归周期,结合蒙特卡罗模拟计算对应诱发作用下的斜坡失稳概率,揭示不同程度的危险性序列。在此基础上利用全概率公式进行多致灾因素的耦合计算,系统评价堆积体斜坡的危险性与潜在风险。并以川藏交通廊道沿线某典型堆积体斜坡为算例,其结果表明:耦合计算结果为中等危险等级,总的规律表现为诱发事件组合越极端,其综合危险性反而越低。
Abstract
Deposit slope, which widely distributes in southeast Tibet with complex climate condition and harsh geological condition, poses large potential risk due to multiple extreme factors. To investigate into the effect of complex environment on slope failure, a hazard evaluation method in consideration of coupled multiple triggering factors is proposed. The probability and return period of triggered events of different hazard levels are analyzed, and on this basis, the failure probability corresponding to different events is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. In the meantime, the stochastic characteristic of triggering factors and the uncertainty involved in the inducing process are considered. Furthermore, multiple factors are coupled with the law of total probability, thus the hazard degree and potential risk of deposit slope can be comprehensively assessed. Earthquake and rainfall, as two explicit scenarios, are incorporated into a real engineering case as an example. The results suggest that the hazard level of the case is moderate; and in general, when the combination of triggering factors gets more extreme, the comprehensive hazard level is smaller.
关键词
堆积体斜坡 /
回归周期 /
失稳概率 /
降雨诱发 /
地震诱发 /
蒙特卡罗模拟
Key words
deposit slope /
return period /
probability of failure /
rainfall-induced landslide /
earthquake-induced landslide /
Monte Carlo simulation
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基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41602304)
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