为了对天津蓟县泥石流区域进行预报,以天津蓟县部分乡镇作为研究区域,并进行网格自动划分,得到了网格的节点-单元-通道信息。通过分析泥石流形成条件选取了泥石流发生频率、24 h雨量、1 h雨量、地质岩性、平均坡度、植被覆盖类型、人口密度7个危险因子,并应用模糊赋权法计算各个危险因子权重,从而建立了泥石流区域预报模型,最后根据计算出的各个网格危险等级对2012年在蓟县双安地区发生的泥石流进行了模拟。结果表明:北部山区泥石流危险度Rd在0.4~0.8之间,属于中度、高度危度险区,双安泥石流灾害点处于高度危险区内,模拟结果与实际情况一致。由此可见该模型具有一定可靠性,可以用于天津蓟县北部山区泥石流的预报。
Abstract
In the aim of predicting debris flow in Jixian county of Tianjin, some townships in the county were taken as study area, and area grid was automatically divided, then the node-cell-channel information was generated. By analyzing the formation conditions of debris flow, 7 risk factors of debris flow were selected ,namely occurrence frequency of debris flow, 24 h rainfall, 1 h rainfall, geological lithology, average slope gradient, vegetation cover type and population density. In association with fuzzy weighting method, the weight of each risk factor was calculated and a prediction model of debris flow was established. Furthermore, the debris flow occurred in Shuang’an area of Jixian county in 2012 was simulated according to the calculated risk level of each grid. Results show that in the northern mountainous area of the county, the hazard degree of debris flow Rd varies from 0.4 to 0.8, indicating medium risk and high risk. The hazard point of Shuang’an debris flow is located at a high-risk area, and the simulated results are in accordance with the actual conditions. The model has certain reliability and can be used to forecast the debris flow in the mountainous area of northern Jixian county of Tianjin.
关键词
泥石流 /
危险因子 /
权重 /
模糊赋权法 /
预报模型
Key words
debris flow /
risk factor /
weight /
fuzzy weighting method /
forecast model
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基金
国家自然科学创新研究群体科学基金项目(51321065);天津地质灾害风险预警技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015M03);天津市科委应用基础与前沿技术研究计划项目(15JCYBJC22300)
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