为更科学合理地对瓯江中上游流域水资源进行优化调控,依据流域的现状和存在的问题选取相应的优势指标和劣势指标,提出了体现依靠优势、克服劣势目标的指标体系。将层次分析法和熵权法相结合,计算指标组合权重。层次分析法确定主观权重,熵权法确定客观权重,既充分考虑了专家意见,又避免了单一赋权的片面性。并结合灰色关联度法建立灰色综合评判模型,计算得到瓯江中上游流域水资源最优调控方案,与传统指标体系和计算方法进行对比,证明提出的指标体系构建方法和综合评价模型是合理可行的。由于改进的指标体系简化了传统指标体系,突出评价的针对性,使得基于该指标体系的灰色综合评判模型可用于瓯江中上游流域水资源调控方案的评价和优选,也为其他流域水资源调控方案优选提供了新的思路。

In the aim of optimizing the water resources regulation and control in the middle and upper reaches of Oujiang river, an index system which contains advantageous indexes and defective indexes is proposed according to the current situation of the basin. The weights are calculated by combining entropy method which determines objective weights and Analytic Hierarchy Process which determines subjective weights, hence experts’ opinions are taken into consideration and one-sidedness of single-weighting is avoided. Furthermore, a grey evaluation model on regulation and control schemes is built in association with Grey Relation Degree, and the optimal regulation and control scheme is calculated. The present index system and model are verified reasonable and practicable through comparison with other methods. The improved index system simplifies the traditional index system and makes the evaluation more targeted. As a result, the evaluation model based on it could be applied to the middle and upper reaches of Oujiang River, and provides a new idea of optimizing regulation and control schemes for other basins.