[1] SEALY K S, STROBL E. A Hurricane Loss Risk Assessment of Coastal Properties in the Caribbean: Evidence from the Bahamas[J]. Ocean & Coastal Management, 2017, 149: 42-51.
[2] 焦小超. 基于脆弱性曲线方法的堤防工程风险评价研究[D]. 北京:中国水利水电科学研究院, 2016.
[3] DOWNTON M W, ZOE J, MILLER B, et al. Reanalysis of US National Weather Service Flood Loss Database[J]. Natural Hazards Review, 2005, 6(1):13-22.
[4] JONGEJAN R, MAASKANT B. Applications of VNK2, a Fully Probabilistic Risk Analysis for All Major Levee Systems in the Netherlands[M]//Comprehensive Flood Risk Management. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2012.
[5] European Commission.A European Flood Action Programme[EB/OL](2014-08-27)[2019-06-10].http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/flood_risk/impacts.htm.
[6] Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM). Flood Mapping for the Nation: A Cost Analysis for the Nation’s Flood Map Inventory[EB/OL]. (2013-04-16) [2019-06-10] http://www.floods.org/ace files/documentlibrary/2012_NFIP_Reform/Flood_Mapping_for_the_Nation_ASFPM_Report_3 1 2013.pdf.
[7] 邢万波. 堤防工程风险分析理论和实践研究 [D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[8] 金海元.堤防工程风险管理及其在堤防中的应用探析[J].城市建设理论研究,2016(29):30-31.
[9] WINTER B, SCHNEEBERGER K, HUTTENLAU M, et al. Sources of Uncertainty in a Probabilistic Flood Risk Model[J]. Natural Hazards, 2018, 91(2):431-446.
[10]RAHIMI S,WOOD C M,COKER F,et al. The Combined Use of MASW and Resistivity Surveys for Levee Assessment:A Case Study of the Melvin Price Reach of the Wood River Levee[J]. Engineering Geology,2018,241:11-24.
[11]徐 伟,刘 茂,杨 杰,等.基于HEC-RAS的淮河淮南段洪水漫顶风险分析[J].长江科学院院报,2011,28(7):13-18.
[12]毛 宁,毛昶熙.堤坝下游管涌险情发生的临界流速和渗流量及其防汛应用[J].长江科学院院报,2011,28(7):43-46.
[13]陈红霞,郭均立.三峡工程坝下回流淘刷防治措施的研究[J].长江科学院院报,2000(3):10-13.
[14]缪吉伦,张永祥,周家俞.治河工程中护岸导流新结构研究综述[J].长江科学院院报,2011,28(3):1-4.
[15]ARDER L F, RUTHERFORD C J, BERNHARDT M L, et al. Preliminary Observations of Levee Performance and Damage Following the 2015-16 Midwest Floods in Missouri and Illinois[C]//Proceedings of the Annual Conference 2016 of Association of State Dam Safety Officials. Dam Safety 2016. September 11-14, 2016: 86-170.
[16]BRIAUD J L. Case Histories in Soil and Rock Erosion: Woodrow Wilson Bridge, Brazos River Meander, Normandy Cliffs, and New Orleans Levees[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2008, 134(10): 1425-1447.
[17]ORLANDINI S, MORETTI G, ALBERTSON J D. Evidence of an Emerging Levee Failure Mechanism Causing Disastrous Floods in Italy[J]. Water Resources Research, 2016, 51(10):7995-8011.
[18]KNIGHT F. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 1921(4): 682-690.
[19]王 栋, 朱元甡. 防洪系统风险分析的研究评述[J]. 水文, 2003, 23(2):15-20.
[20]陈 进,黄 薇.防洪工程系统风险分析方法探讨[J].长江科学院院报,2001(5):37-40.
[21]贾 超. 结构风险分析及风险决策的概率方法[M]. 北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2007.
[22]王亚军,张楚汉,金 峰,等.堤防工程综合安全模型和风险评价体系研究及应用[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(1):101-108.
[23]IPCC. Glossary of Terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaption. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
[24]BEVEN K J, ASPINALL W P, BATES P D, et al. Epistemic Uncertainties and Natural Hazard Risk Assessment-Part 1: A Review of the Issues[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2015(12): 7333-7377.
[25]吴兴征,赵进勇.堤防结构风险分析理论及其应用[J].水利学报,2003,34(8):79-85.
[26]FREUDENTHAL A M. The Safety of Structures[J]. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 1947, 112(1): 125-159.
[27]张 伟.可靠性分析的基本假定和计算方法[J].山西建筑,2007(30):104-105.
[28]WOOD E. An Analysis of Flood Levee Reliability[J]. Water Resources Research, 1975, 13(3): 665-671.
[29]VRIJLING J K. Probabilistic Design of Water Defense Systems in the Netherlands[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2001, 74(3): 337-344.
[30]梁在潮,李泰来.江河堤防防洪能力的风险分析[J].长江科学院院报,2001,18(2):7-10.
[31]徐卫亚,邢万波,魏文白,等.堤防失事风险分析和风险管理研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(1):47-55.
[32]曹 云. 堤防工程风险分析理论和实践研究 [O]. 南京:河海大学; 2005.
[33]高延红. 基于风险分析的堤防工程加固排序方法研究[D]. 杭州:浙江工业大学, 2009.
[34]刘亚莲,周翠英.堤坝失事风险的突变评价方法及其应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2010,30(5):5-8.
[35]吴兴征, 丁留谦, 张金接. 防洪堤的可靠性设计方法探讨[J]. 水利学报, 2003,34(4):94-100.
[36]U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Risk Analysis in Geotechnical Engineering for Support of Planning Studies. ETL-1110-2 556[R]. Washington D C: USACE, 1999.
[37]PINTER N, HUTHOFF F, DIERAUER J, et al. Modeling Residual Flood Risk Behind Levees, Upper Mississippi River, USA[J]. Environmental Science & Policy, 2016, 58:131-140.
[38]卢丹玫. 基于灰色理论的神经网络方法在防洪堤边坡稳定性分析中的应用[D].南宁:广西大学,2004.
[39]张秀勇. 黄河下游堤防破坏机理与安全评价方法的研究[D].南京:河海大学, 2005.
[40]王 恩.模糊层次分析法在河道堤防工程安全评价中的应用[J].山西建筑,2017,43(10):221-222.
[41]宁少晨,戚 蓝.灰色斜率关联模型在堤防岸坡稳定影响因素分析中的应用[J].江西农业学报,2007,19(3):89-90,94.
[42]蔡 新,严 伟,李 益,等.灰色理论在堤防安全评价中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(1):62-66.
[43]吴云芳.大坝安全监测神经网络模型研究和子系统开发[D].武汉:武汉大学,2002.
[44]赵 斌,吴中如,张爱玲.BP模型在大坝安全监测预报中的应用[J].大坝观测与土工测试,1999 (6):1-4.
[45]杨 杰,顾冲时,吴中如.大坝变形监测的BP网络模型与预报研究[J].西安理工大学学报,2001,17(1):25-29.
[46]苏怀智, 吴中如, 温志萍,等. 遗传算法在大坝安全监控神经网络预报模型建立中的应用[J]. 水利学报, 2001,32(8):44-48.
[47]陈 伟. 遗传算法与神经网络在大坝安全监测中的应用研究——以小浪底大坝为例[D]. 西安:长安大学, 2009.
[48]翁静君. 人工神经网络在大坝安全监控中的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学, 2006.
[49]张我华,余功栓,蔡袁强.堤与坝管涌发生的机理及人工智能预测与评定[J].浙江大学学报(工学版),2004,38(7):109-115.
[50]陈 亮,赵正信,陈建生, 等.基于RBF神经网络的堤防管涌预测方法[J].探矿工程-岩土钻掘工程,2007,34(11):5-8.
[51]余功栓. 人工智能技术在大坝安全分析中的应用[D].杭州:浙江大学,2004.
[52]王秀杰,孙 瑀,苑希民,等.突变理论与BP神经网络相结合的堤防安全综合评价[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(7):167-173.
[53]HOSSEINALIZADEH M, KARIMINEJAD N, RAHMATI O, et al. How Can Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Approaches Predict Piping Erosion Susceptibility?[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 646: 1554-1566.
[54]王小茹,何怀东,游凌云.堤坝管涌发生的预测方法研究[J].公路交通科技(应用技术版),2014,10(2):169-172.
[55]翟 越,刘 浪,于 澍.堤防管涌发生可能性识别的网格搜索-支持向量机方法[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,46(4):1497-1503.
[56]杨 杰. 大坝安全监控中若干不确定性问题的分析方法与应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[57]马晓忠,彭雪辉,张友明,等.基于单元堤段洪泽湖大堤风险分析[J].水利水电技术,2015,46(4):143-147.
[58]解家毕,孙东亚.事件树法原理及其在堤坝风险分析中的应用[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2006,4(2):133-137.
[59]李松晨,杨高升,杨 帆,等.基于脆性理论的城市防洪系统探究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(1):154-158,165.
[60]王靖文,刘 茂,李剑峰.基于故障树和Monte-Carlo模拟的堤防失稳概率分析研究[J].中国公共安全(学术版),2008(1):57-61.
[61]BRIMICOMBE A J, BARTLETT J M. Linking Geographic Information Systems with Hydraulic Simulation Modelling for Flood Risk Assessment: The Hong Kong Approach[M]//GOODCHILD M F. GIS and Environmental Modelling. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996.
[62]CHEN Y R, YU B. Integrated Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Geographic Information System for Flood Risk Assessment and Flood Plain Management in Taiwan[J]. Natural Hazards, 2011, 59(3):1261-1276.
[63]梁艳红. 基于Mike Flood的中小河流溃堤洪灾风险分析[D].南昌:南昌工程学院, 2017.
