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DOI: https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20250066

西南诸河水文情势演变特征——以保山市为例

  • 张宁 , 1 ,
  • 李成良 , 1 ,
  • 陈文华 2 ,
  • 赵伟华 3 ,
  • 谷从晓 1
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  • 1.云南省水文水资源局保山分局，云南 保山678000
  • 2.保山学院资源环境学院，云南 保山678000
  • 3.长江科学院，武汉 430010
李成良（1970-），男，高级工程师，主要研究方向为水文水资源研究。E-mail：

张 宁（1980-），男，硕士，高级工程师，主要研究方向为水文水资源分析评价。E-mail：

收稿日期: 2025-01-24

  修回日期: 2025-04-09

  网络出版日期: 2025-06-03

基金资助

怒江下游山地农业生态系统云南省野外科学观测研究站(202305AM340031)

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Evolution Characteristics of Hydrological Regimes in Rivers of Southwest China —— Taking Baoshan City as an Example

  • ZHANG Ning , 1 ,
  • LI Cheng-liang , 1 ,
  • CHEN Wen-hua 2 ,
  • ZHAO Wei-hua 3 ,
  • GU Cong-xiao 1
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  • 1. Baoshan Branch of Yunnan Province Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau，Baoshan 678000,China
  • 2. Baoshan University School of Resources and Environment,Baoshan 678000,China
  • 3. Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010,China

Received date: 2025-01-24

  Revised date: 2025-04-09

  Online published: 2025-06-03

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摘要

滇西高原跨境河流水文演变研究对区域水资源管理具有重要意义。基于1956-2016年西南诸河三大水系（澜沧江、怒江、伊洛瓦底江）的降水与径流数据，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，揭示了以下发现：① 研究区产水模数达78.83×104 m³/km²，但均呈下降趋势，其中伊洛瓦底江衰减速率（-0.175×108 m³/a）显著高于澜沧江（-0.024×108 m³/a）；② 在区域尺度识别出24年的水文变化主周期，2016年处于该周期低频末期，结合相位外推预测未来水量可能持续偏少；③ 发现澜沧江存在7-12年的次周期振荡，区别于怒江和伊洛瓦底江的单周期主导模式；④ 降水量与水资源量相关性显著（R2>0.75），但澜沧江因特殊下垫面条件呈现不同步特征。系统分析量化了三江水系水文演变的空间分异特征，建立了基于多尺度周期分析的水量预测方法，为西南跨境河流水资源管理提供了新的科学依据。

关键词： 降水量; 水资源总量; 水文情势; Morlet小波分析; 西南诸河

本文引用格式

张宁 , 李成良 , 陈文华 , 赵伟华 , 谷从晓 . 西南诸河水文情势演变特征——以保山市为例[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2025 . DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20250066

Abstract

The hydrological evolution of transboundary rivers in the Dianxi Plateau was investigated to support regional water resource management. Precipitation and runoff data (1956-2016) from three major river systems (Lancang, Nujiang, and Irrawaddy) in Southwest China were analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend tests and Morlet wavelet analysis. Key findings include: ①A high water yield modulus (78.83 × 10⁴ m³/km²) was observed, though a declining trend was identified, with the Irrawaddy Basin showing the most significant reduction rate (−0.175 × 10⁸ m³/yr), 7.3 times greater than that of the Lancang River (−0.024 × 10⁸ m³/yr). ②A dominant 24-year hydrological cycle was detected, with 2016 marking the end of its low-frequency phase, suggesting potential future water scarcity based on phase extrapolation. ③The Lancang River was found to exhibit unique 7-12-year sub-cycles, differing from the single-cycle patterns of the Nujiang and Irrawaddy systems. ④Strong precipitation-runoff correlations (R² > 0.75) were confirmed, though asynchronous behavior was noted in the Lancang River due to distinct underlying surface conditions.Spatial heterogeneity in hydrological evolution across the three river basins was systematically quantified, and a multi-scale cyclical analysis framework for water resource prediction was established. These results provide new scientific support for transboundary river management in Southwest China, emphasizing the need for basin-specific adaptation strategies given observed differential hydrological responses.

Key words： Precipitation; Total water resources; Hydrological regime; Morlet wavelet analysis; SWRB

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