长江科学院院报 ›› 2008, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (3): 23-27.

• 土壤侵蚀与水土保持专辑 • 上一篇    下一篇

近50年来嘉陵江流域径流泥沙演变规律及驱动因素定量分析

丁文峰,张平仓,任洪玉   

  1. 长江科学院 水土保持研究所, 武汉 430010
  • 出版日期:2008-06-01 发布日期:2013-01-18

Quantitative Analysis on Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors ofAnnual Runoff and Sediment Transportation Changes for Jialing River

DING Wenfeng, ZHANG Pingcang, REN Hongyu   

  1. Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China
  • Online:2008-06-01 Published:2013-01-18

摘要: 运用Mann-Kendall秩次趋势分析法和均值差异T检验法对嘉陵江流域1956-2000年年径流量和年输沙量序列进行了分析。其结果表明:嘉陵江近50年来径流量无明显趋势变化,输沙量呈显著下降趋势;输沙量分别在1968年、1985年、1989年、1993年发生了突变,4个突变点的年平均输沙量分别为1.81×108,1.35×108,0.71×108,0.34×108t,相应变点的跃度为0.46×108,0.64×108,0.37×108t。嘉陵江流域径流量在1993年发生了一次突变,相应变点的跃度为184.73×108m3,这与利用径流泥沙双累积曲线法得到的输沙量阶段性分析结果相一致。最后,根据嘉陵江流域水沙变化原因,从自然因素和人为因素两方面对嘉陵江流域的水沙变化原因作了分析,并运用数学模型,给出了人为因素和自然因素对水沙趋势影响的定量指标,结果表明,嘉陵江流域输沙量变化中人为作用(主要是水利工程建设和大规模水土保持)的贡献率为53.8%,而自然原因(主要是降雨)的贡献率为46.2%,引起嘉陵江输沙量变化的主要原因是人为因素。

关键词: 嘉陵江, 径流量 , 输沙量, 驱动因素 , 定量分析

Abstract: Annual runoff and sediment transportation changes of Jialing River from 1956-2000 are analyzed in this paper by using Mann Kendall method and average difference T method. The results show that the amount of annual runoff in recent 50 years has no evident variety and the annual sediment transportation has appeared obvious descendent trend. Moreover, with the application of sudden change point searching technology, the paper comes to a conclusion that the annual sediment transportation change duration of the Jialing River may be divided into four periods, 1956-1967,1968-1984,1985-1992 and 1993-2000. The average annual sediment transportation of the above four periods is 1.81×108t,1.35×108t,0.71×108t,0.34×108t respectively. The leapdegree of every stage sediment transportation is 0.46×108t,0.64×108t,0.37×108t. The annual average runoff change duration of Jialing River can be divided into two periods, which is 1956-1992 and 1993-2000, with the range of every stage runoff is 184.73×108m3. The result is consistent with the data obtained by the double accumulation curve method. In order to find out the driving forces of the annual runoff and sediment transportation changes, the relationships between precipitation and sediment transportation and between human activities and sediment transportation ?are analyzed by the results of the mathematical model. Through correlation analysis,it is quite clear that the change in annual runoff and sediment transportation depends on the rainfal1 and human activities, in which human activities include mainly water conservancy project constructions and soil and water conservation measures, thus resulting in a contribution ratio 53.8% in the runoff and sediment transportation changes, and the rainfal1 contribution ratio being 46.2% in the runoff and sediment transportation changes. Human activities were the main reason causing the runoff and sediment transportation descent for nearly 50 years.

Key words: Jialing River , runoff , sediment transportation , driving factor , quantitative analysis

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